The Commission and Forewords

Energy is fundamental to our civilization and to the prosperity of nations. Its production, distribution and utilization are deeply embedded in the fabric of our economies and central to the relations between states.

The energy sources powering our societies have been undergoing a period of rapid change. Renewables have emerged as a technologically feasible, economically attractive and sustainable choice that increasingly can meet the energy needs of many countries, corporations and citizens. As tackling climate change becomes more and more critical and renewables steadily increase their capacity to meet our energy needs, the global transition to sustainable sources of energy will continue to accelerate.

Renewables enable countries to strengthen their energy security and achieve greater energy independence by harnessing the vast indigenous renewable energy sources that can be found across the planet. The rapid development of renewable technologies and their widespread deployment is certain to have significant long-term effects on geopolitical dynamics. While the establishment of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has created a central platform for international cooperation on renewables, to date no systematic efforts have been made to examine their geopolitical implications comprehensively.

I therefore took the initiative to convene a Global Commission to address the geopolitics of energy transformation. Composed of prominent leaders from different geographical and professional backgrounds in the fields of energy and international affairs, the Commission was launched at IRENA’s annual Assembly in January 2018 and deliberated over one year, drawing on the views of a broad range of public and private stakeholders and academics.

I wish to express my heartfelt appreciation to all who contributed to this process. Germany, Norway and the United Arab Emirates provided generous support that made the work of the Commission possible. President Grimsson, as Chair, ably guided the Commission’s deliberations.

Commission members made time to actively participate in the Commission’s discussions and provide compelling perspectives from their various areas of expertise. Last, but not least, the small but highly competent Secretariat facilitated, supported and synthesized the Commission’s reflections and research.

The Report that has resulted is a vital first foray in this area that deepens our understanding of the wider geopolitical implications of the energy transformation. It invites us to rethink energy statecraft as we have known it. It maps trends in the energy sector, and considers their possible impacts on power relations, trade, the root causes of geopolitical instability, and conflict. The report also acknowledges that, given the complex and dynamic nature of the transition, it is difficult to predict precisely how events will unfold.

The Report highlights the vital need to prepare proactively for the new energy age and its geopolitical consequences. It also shows the crucial need to encourage innovation, align socio-economic structures and investment with the energy transition, strengthen international co-operation, and plan energy systems that are just and inclusive. Forward-looking choices that leaders in government and industry make today will create a more prosperous future that globally can promote sustainable economic growth, improve livelihoods, and foster social cohesion and stability.

It is my hope that this Report will help decision makers in countries to anticipate and navigate the rapidly changing global energy landscape and manage the new geopolitical environment it will create. In doing so, this Report can enable them to mitigate the potential risks and benefit from the many opportunities that transformation offers.